What is the Carmel-by-the-Sea real estate market doing in 2026?
As of July 2026, the Carmel-by-the-Sea single-family home market is balanced. The median sale price is $3,500,000, with 4.7 months of supply and homes selling at 94.4% of original list price — a meaningful recovery from the softer conditions of 2025.
The Carmel-by-the-Sea real estate market in mid-2026 is steady and active. Prices are up from last year, the right homes are selling relatively quickly, and inventory sits at a comfortable level. Based on MLS data for single-family homes in Carmel (MLS areas 141–145) through July 9, 2026, here’s a straight read of where things stand.
Fifty-six homes have closed so far this year. The median sale price is $3,500,000, compared to a full-year 2025 median of $3,091,375. Price per square foot is up 6.7% from the same six-month window last year — from $2,163 to $2,309. And the sale-to-list ratio has recovered from 91.4% in 2025 to 94.4% so far in 2026, meaning sellers are leaving less on the table than they were a year ago.
Carmel-by-the-Sea Real Estate Market Snapshot — July 2026
The figures below reflect single-family home sales in Carmel-by-the-Sea:
| Median sale price | $3,500,000 |
| Median days on market | 28 days |
| Median price per square foot | $2,309 (Jan–Jun 2026) |
| Sale-to-original-list price | 94.4% (Jan–Jun 2026) |
| Homes sold YTD (2026) | 56 |
| Active listings (current) | 35 active + 7 under contract |
| Months of supply | ~4.7 (balanced market) |
Data source: MLSLISTINGS. Area includes MLS areas 141 – Northwest Carmel, 142 – Northeast Carmel, 143 – Southwest Carmel, 144 – Southeast Carmel, and 145 – Carmel Point. Single-family residential. 2026 figures reflect Jan–Jul 9, 2026 (56 closed sales). Current inventory as of July 9, 2026.
How 2026 Compares to Recent Years
The four-year trend puts this year in useful context:
| Year | Median Price | Median $/SqFt | Sale-to-List | Median DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $3,152,500 | $2,164 | 94.9% | 15 days |
| 2024 | $3,600,000 | $2,268 | 94.0% | 17 days |
| 2025 | $3,091,375 | $2,108 | 91.4% | 27 days |
| 2026 (Jan–Jun) | $3,500,000 | $2,309 | 94.4% | 28 days |
Source: MLSLISTINGS. Area includes MLS areas 141 – Northwest Carmel, 142 – Northeast Carmel, 143 – Southwest Carmel, 144 – Southeast Carmel, and 145 – Carmel Point. Single-family residential. 2023, 2024, and 2025 reflect full-year closed sales. 2026 reflects Jan–Jun only. $/SqFt and sale-to-list for 2026 calculated from monthly MLS data, Jan–Jun.
2025 was the softer year in the cycle: prices pulled back from the 2024 peak, days on market stretched, and homes were selling at a steeper discount from list. So far in 2026, all three measures have stabilized. The median is around $3.5 million, price per square foot is up 6.7% from the same period last year, and the sale-to-list ratio has improved from 91.4% to 94.4%.
What the Numbers Are Telling Us
A few patterns stand out:
- Prices have stabilized from 2025. Full-year 2025 saw a softer median of $3,091,375 and price per square foot of $2,108 for the January–June window. So far in 2026, both measures have rebounded — the median is $3,500,000 and $/sqft is $2,309, up 6.7% from the same period last year.
- The best homes sell fast. Thirty-two percent of 2026 sales closed in 7 days or fewer. Several premium properties went pending the same day they listed.
- Luxury is moving first. Ocean-view and village-center properties above $4 million are selling faster than the broader market — several went pending within days of listing.
- Overpricing has a cost. Homes that closed in under a week sold at 98% of list. Homes that took more than 100 days sold at 87%. The spread tells you everything about the benefit of accurate pricing.
Where the Action is by Price Range
The $2M–$4M range is where the market is deepest — 27 of 56 sales this year, at a 33-day median. That’s the most active segment in Carmel right now. The $4M–$7M range is moving at about 28 days. Above $7 million, demand is immediate for the right properties: ocean-view homes on Scenic Road and well-positioned village locations near Ocean Avenue and San Antonio have closed with almost no time on market. Under $2M, there are only two active listings at this writing — very limited inventory, which is keeping values supported even as those homes take a little longer to find their buyers.
What This Means for You
If you’re selling: This is a productive market for well-priced homes. The stabilization year-over-year is significant — prices and sale-to-list ratios are both up — but it doesn’t give overpriced listings a free pass. According to California Association of Realtors data, extended days on market consistently leads to price reductions in California luxury markets. Homes priced accurately in Carmel are selling close to list. Price to today’s value, not last year’s ceiling.
If you’re buying: Four to five months of supply gives you more room than buyers have had in stronger years. You’re not competing blind on day one in most price ranges. But the best homes in premium locations are still going fast — sometimes in a single day. Come pre-approved, know your parameters, and be ready to move when the right property appears. Per Redfin’s Carmel market data and Realtor.com inventory trends, coastal California luxury markets tend to move in bursts — stretches of relative quiet followed by quick activity when the right inventory arrives.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is now a good time to sell a home in Carmel-by-the-Sea?
Yes, conditions are favorable for well-priced properties. The median sale price so far in 2026 is $3,500,000, compared to a full-year 2025 median of $3,091,375, and homes are selling at 94.4% of original asking price — up from 91.4% for all of 2025. Homes priced accurately are selling; homes priced too high are sitting and requiring reductions before closing.
How long does it take to sell a home in Carmel, California?
The median is 28 days in 2026. The range is wide: several premium ocean-view properties went pending the day they listed, while some homes took more than 100 days. Pricing and location drive that spread more than anything else.
What is the price per square foot in Carmel-by-the-Sea?
The median price per square foot for single-family homes in Carmel-by-the-Sea is $2,309 for the first half of 2026 — up 6.7% from $2,163 in the same period last year. The range runs from approximately $1,025 to over $6,372 per square foot, depending on location, views, and condition.
Born and raised on the Monterey Peninsula, Nate has been honored with the Sotheby’s Top Producer award four consecutive years, Top 100 Sotheby’s associates nationwide, and Real Trends Verified Top 1.5% nationwide for 2026. Reach him at 831-869-6117 or nate@randallrealty.com.
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